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QUARTERBACKS

START

Jacoby Brissett (ARI) v. DET

• The Stat: Detroit has allowed the most passing yards and passing touchdowns.

• The Spot: A 54.5-point total means the Cardinals will have to throw to keep up.

• The Risk: Brissett has had mixed fantasy production thus far this season.

FADE

Bo Nix (DEN) @ LAC

• The Stat: Nix ranks 25th in QB rushing yards versus 11th in 2025 (fantasy upside capped while passing attack is a mess).

• The Spot: The Chargers have allowed only one top-12 QB fantasy performance.

• The Risk: Week 3 showed there's still a top-12 QB in there.

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ECR ➡️ Based on the Expert Consensus Rankings at FantasyPros ahead of each week’s games.

ACTUAL ➡️ Based on PPR scoring.

FANTASY POINT DIFFERENCE ➡️ The difference between the player's Actual and the player who finished at that week's ECR. So +1.5 points means the player finished 1.5 points higher/better than the player at the ECR. This gives me an idea of the actual points I gained or left on the table.

✅ Good call

❌ Miss

🤷‍♂️ / 🚑 ➡️ Wash / Push due to injury

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QUARTERBACKS

START

Tyler Shough (NO) v. ATL ❌

• ECR 6 v. Actual QB-15

• Fantasy Point Difference: -5.6 points

Opportunity was there with nearly 50 pass attempts and 300 passing yards, but just one lone touchdown in Week 4. Shough remains a dependable option as a high-volume passer with rushing upside.

FADE

Jalen Hurts (PHI) v. LAR 🤷‍♂️

• ECR 17 v. Actual QB-20

• Fantasy Point Difference: -0.6 points

Another disappointing fantasy performance for Hurts and the Eagles’ offense, not even reaching 100 passing yards in Week 4. This did, however, end up about where he was expected, and we should expect much of the same with injuries to offensive weapons and the retirement/trading of offensive linemen.

SLEEPER

Jacoby Brissett (ARI) @ NYG 🤷‍♂️

• ECR 20 v. Actual QB-21

• Fantasy Point Difference: -0.1 points

Brissett threw for over 150 yards and two touchdowns, but threw three interceptions in a so-so fantasy effort. There is reason for optimism, as Week 5 is a juicy matchup against the Lions.

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QUARTERBACKS

START

Tyler Shough (NO) v. ATL

• The Stat: QB-3 in fantasy points per game with 9 total touchdowns.

• The Spot: Favorable dome conditions with over 26 implied points for NOLA.

• The Risk: Left tackle still out, and Falcons pressure could inflate already evident vulnerability (10 sacks, 3 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost).

FADE

Jalen Hurts (PHI) v. LAR

• The Stat: Week 3 was the worst passing performance thus far (153 passing yards - 0 passing touchdowns - 1 interception) despite a favorable matchup.

• The Spot: DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both out, and the forecast includes rain.

• The Risk: Hurts’ rushing floor, including goal-line work, could save his Week 4.

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ECR ➡️ Based on the Expert Consensus Rankings at FantasyPros ahead of each week’s games.

ACTUAL ➡️ Based on PPR scoring.

FANTASY POINT DIFFERENCE ➡️ The difference between the player's Actual and the player who finished at that week's ECR. So +1.5 points means the player finished 1.5 points higher/better than the player at the ECR. This gives me an idea of the actual points I gained or left on the table.

✅ Good call

❌ Miss

🤷‍♂️ / 🚑 ➡️ Wash / Push due to injury

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QUARTERBACKS

START

Justin Herbert (LAC) v. BUF ❌

• ECR 14 v. Actual QB-23

• Fantasy Point Difference: -7.1 points

Herbert’s bounce-back performance will have to wait, as he put together another fantasy finish outside the top-20. The schedule gets no easier before the Chargers’ Week 7 bye, going against Seattle, Denver, and Kansas City. So it’s a miss here, and I’m not looking to start Herbert in 1-QB leagues until proven otherwise.

FADE

Baker Mayfield (TB) v. MIN ✅

• ECR 20 v. Actual QB-26

• Fantasy Point Difference: -4.4 points

Mayfield left the Week 3 matchup early with a thumb injury that will sideline him for a couple of weeks. Still, Mayfield played enough to validate this fade call. The Vikings limited Mayfield to 217 passing yards and one touchdown, while forcing one interception. Maybe once Mayfield returns, he can get the Buccaneers offense on track.

SLEEPER

Sam Darnold (SEA) v. WAS ✅

• ECR 21 v. Actual QB-2

• Fantasy Point Difference: +14.5 points

The Seahawks' Week 3 loss to the Commanders was the shock of the week, but I wouldn’t blame Darnold. To keep up with the Commanders’ offense, Darnold threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, but unfortunately tossed two interceptions. Darnold appeared healthy in his return from injury, and this was a big boon for fantasy managers who started him in Week 3.

Read more

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Trades were sourced from the Dynasty Daddy trade database. Trades were based on the following settings:

• Quarterbacks: 2 (Superflex)

• Scoring Format: 1 (Full PPR)

• Tight End Premium: 0-0.5

• Team Count: 10-12 (Draft pick range noted below extends to 12-team leagues)

• Starter Count: 9-11

• Bestball: False

Every player has Buys (trade-for) and Sells (trade-away), regardless of whether I am “Bearish” or “Bullish”.

📈 Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG

Dart finished just outside the top-12 QBs in fantasy in his rookie season, as the QB-14. His sophomore season was off to a booming start, with a QB-4 fantasy performance against the Cowboys in Week 1, with three touchdowns and over 50 rushing yards. Then he suffered a knee injury that wiped away the rest of his 2026 regular season. Since Dart left with his injury, the Giants offense has put up only 18 points, showing how much they need him.

Looking ahead to 2027, Dart is set to start his third NFL season and second season with the current coaching staff. Dart and Malik Nabers' health, along with adding another offensive weapon (including the o-line), could put this offense over the top. Dart remains a top-12 dynasty quarterback, with rushing upside in an ascending offense.

➕ To BUY:

Jaxson Dart + ‘27 2nd ↔️ Bo Nix

• Nix just had his best fantasy performance against the Rams in Week 3, but he and Dart are close enough in value that I’ll take the side that adds to my draft capital.

Jaxson Dart + ‘27 1st ↔️ Justin Herbert + ‘27 2nd + ‘28 3rd

• I expect Herbert and the Chargers’ offense to bounce back at some point, but Dart and a ‘27 1st is too much to pass up.

➖ To SELL:

Jaxson Dart + ‘27 2nd ↔️ Brock Purdy

• I have been and will continue to be a huge fan of Purdy, and I think he and Goff are two of the more underappreciated QBs in fantasy. This is a fair price.

Jaxson Dart + ‘27 3rd + ‘27 4th ↔️ Trevor Lawrence

• I can stomach Lawrence’s streakiness if it becomes less frequent as the Liam Coen-led offense keeps growing. Dart and some late picks are well worth it.

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MATCHUPS

QUARTERBACKS

START

Justin Herbert (LAC) v. BUF

Herbert hasn't cracked the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks in either of the first two weeks, and to add insult to injury, the Chargers are winless. The good news is Herbert faces the Bills in Week 3, with a 50.5-point game total. The offensive line is still a concern, but Herbert dealt with similar issues last season, so the hope is he can have his first top-12 fantasy performance in Week 3.

Read more

ECR ➡️ Based on the Expert Consensus Rankings at FantasyPros ahead of each week’s games.

ACTUAL ➡️ Based on PPR scoring.

FANTASY POINT DIFFERENCE ➡️ The difference between the player's Actual and the player who finished at that week's ECR. So +1.5 points means the player finished 1.5 points higher/better than the player at the ECR. This gives me an idea of the actual points I gained or left on the table.

🚑 ➡️ Injury reduced snaps and ultimately fantasy impact.

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QUARTERBACKS

START

Jordan Love (GB) v. NYJ

• ECR 16 v. Actual QB-21

• Fantasy Point Difference: -2.8 points

A measly 145 passing yards is not what I expected, but two touchdowns helped boost Love’s Week 2 performance. You weren’t missing out on much by starting Love in Week 2, but you expected a bit more fantasy production against the Jets.

FADE

Jacoby Brissett (ARI) v. SEA

• ECR 25 v. Actual QB-28

• Fantasy Point Difference: -2.1 points

It was a rough one for Brissett in Week 2; he couldn’t reach 100 yards passing and paired one touchdown with one interception. Brissett won’t play the Seahawks’ defense every week, but that was the right logic for fading them in Week 2.

SLEEPER

Carson Wentz (MIN) v. CHI

• ECR 23 v. Actual QB-30

• Fantasy Point Difference: -6.0 points

The Vikings-Bears matchup had little offense, with poor weather and injuries limiting combined points to 12. I got in over my skis on my optimism for Wentz in Week 2, and it sounds like Kyler Murray will return in Week 3. If you did start him in Week 2, it hurt you a bit relative to his ECR.

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MATCHUPS

PACKERS v. JETS (-3.5) 🏈 45 total points

BEARS v. VIKINGS (-4.5) 🏈 48 total points 🏟️ DOME

PATRIOTS v. STEELERS (-5) 🏈 41.5 total points

FALCONS v. PANTHERS (-2) 🏈 44 total points

BUCCANEERS v. BROWNS (-9) 🏈 41.5 total points

TEXANS v. BENGALS (-2) 🏈 46 total points

RAVENS v. SAINTS (-9) 🏈 46.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

EAGLES v. TITANS (-7) 🏈 39.5 total points

CHARGERS v. RAIDERS (-7) 🏈 43.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

BRONCOS v. JAGUARS (-2) 🏈 45.5 total points

COWBOYS v. COMMANDERS (-4) 🏈 50.5 total points

CARDINALS v. SEAHAWKS (-4) 🏈 41 total points

49ERS v. DOLPHINS (-13) 🏈 45.5 total points

CHIEFS v. COLTS (-6.5) 🏈 46.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

RAMS v. GIANTS (-7) 🏈 48 total points

QUARTERBACKS

START

Jordan Love (GB) v. NYJ

The Packers face a much easier defense in the Jets than the Vikings did in Week 1. With the running back room still in flux, look for Love to spread the ball around to Christian Watson and company. A top-12 finish is in his range of outcomes.

Read more

ECR is based on the Expert Consensus Rankings at FantasyPros ahead of each week’s games.

Actual is based on PPR scoring.

Fantasy Point Difference is the difference between the player's Actual and the player who finished at that week's ECR. So +1.5 points means the player finished 1.5 points higher/better than the player at the ECR. This gives me an idea of the actual points I gained or left on the table.

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QUARTERBACKS

START

Baker Mayfield (TB) v. CIN

• ECR 14 v. Actual QB-26

• Fantasy Point Difference: -6.3

This was an absolute bummer, with Baker having an efficient day but not throwing a single touchdown. The point difference isn’t horrible, but it could have been the difference in your matchup.

Tyler Shough (NO) v. DET

• ECR 17 v. Actual QB-8

• Fantasy Point Difference: +9.2

Things didn’t start well for Shough with multiple turnovers, but it took a turn for the better, throwing for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. This decision could’ve tilted the scales in your favor.

FADE

Daniel Jones (IND) v. BAL

• ECR 23 v. Actual QB-29

• Fantasy Point Difference: -4.0

Jones had a forgettable game both on the ground and through the air. He did slightly worse than expected, but it wasn't too surprising.

C.J. Stroud (HOU) v. BUF

• ECR 25 v. Actual QB-16

• Fantasy Point Difference: +3.8

Stroud had a strong showing as the Texans narrowly lost to the Bills. The point difference wasn't significant enough to make a big impact, but there’s no denying Stroud played better than expected.

SLEEPER

Geno Smith (NYJ) v. TEN

• ECR 28 v. Actual QB-28

• Fantasy Point Difference: +0

Geno has been appropriately estimated, no more, no less.

Read more

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Trades were sourced from the Dynasty Daddy trade database. Trades were based on the following settings:

• Quarterbacks: 2 (Superflex)

• Scoring Format: 1 (Full PPR)

• Tight End Premium: 0-0.5

• Team Count: 10-12 (Draft pick range noted below extends to 12-team leagues)

• Starter Count: 9-11

• Bestball: False

Every player has Buys (trade-for) and Sells (trade-away), regardless of whether I am “Bearish” or “Bullish”.

📈 Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT

5 targets / 5 receptions - 46 yards - 1 TD — 15.6 points [TE-6]

It is a big tier outside of the top three or so tight ends. I have Pat Freiermuth projected as the TE-16 for the 2026 season, and despite my optimism versus consensus, I fear I may have even been too cynical. The Steelers brought in a familiar face for Aaron Rodgers in Mike McCarthy, which meant no more Arthur Smith, and coincidentally Jonnu Smith found himself in a different uniform as well. All of this aligns with Freiermuth getting more opportunities, and he did just that in Week 1.

A modest five targets and a touchdown is not particularly flashy, and it looks a lot different without the touchdown. But considering the blocking and receiving ability of Freiermuth, he will retain a majority of snaps, as he had 73% in Week 1. As Rodgers settles back into a McCarthy-style offense, look for Freiermuth to get a steady flow of targets and, hopefully, touchdowns. The touchdowns will come and go, but unless it is an atrocious matchup, I like Freiermuth as a streaming option. And he’s young enough to retain dynasty value beyond this season.

➕ To BUY:

Pat Freiermuth ↔️ ‘27 3rd

• 3rds are always lotto tickets, and even though it’s the 2027 class, it’s still a good value.

Pat Freiermuth + ‘27 2nd ↔️ Juwan Johnson + ‘28 3rd

• In a better offense, I would put Freiermuth closer to Johnson than in prior years. And getting a pick a round and a year sooner makes this a good move.

➖ To SELL:

Pat Freiermuth + Darren Waller ↔️ ‘27 2nd

• This one is tough for me, but the insulated value of the 2027 2nd is too much to pass up.

Pat Freiermuth + Chuba Hubbard + Woody Marks ↔️ Dalton Kincaid + Josh Jacobs

• Kincaid may never be a full-time player, but when he’s available, he is a top-end option at the position. And while Jacobs is dealing with off-field issues, he remains a high-volume running back for another year or two, at least.

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MATCHUPS

BILLS v. TEXANS (+1.5) 🏈 44.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

BEARS v. PANTHERS (+2.5) 🏈 47.5 total points

BROWNS v. JAGUARS (-7.5) 🏈 40.5 total points

FALCONS v. STEELERS (-3.5) 🏈 41.5 total points

JETS v. TITANS (-2.5) 🏈 39.5 total points

SAINTS v. LIONS (-6.5) 🏈 49.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

BUCCANEERS v. BENGALS (-3.5) 🏈 50.5 total points

RAVENS v. COLTS (+3.5) 🏈 47.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

COMMANDERS v. EAGLES (-5.5) 🏈 44.5 total points

PACKERS v. VIKINGS (-1.5) 🏈 46.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

DOLPHINS v. RAIDERS (-3.5) 🏈 39.5 total points

CARDINALS v. CHARGERS (-9.5) 🏈 47.5 total points 🏟️ DOME

COWBOYS v. GIANTS (+2.5) 🏈 48.5 total points

BRONCOS v. CHIEFS (-2.5) 🏈 43.5 total points

QUARTERBACKS

START

Baker Mayfield (TB) v. CIN

Mayfield is a very rich man as he enters the Week 1 matchup against the Bengals. So more commas and a Swiss-cheese Cincinnati defense point to a high-scoring game and plenty of fantasy point opportunities for Mayfield and company. After dealing with injury, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin look healthy and ready to contribute. Wheels up for Baker to finish in the top-10 this week.

Tyler Shough (NO) v. DET

Shough earned the starting gig halfway through the 2025 season. And I’ll admit I wasn't the highest on him coming out of college. Entering the 2026 season, Shough is set up for a shootout against a hobbled Lions defense. Rookie Jordan Tyson is out for an extended period, but Shough did plenty of damage last season with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson.

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MATCHUPS

PATRIOTS v. SEAHAWKS (-3.5) 🏈 44.5 total points

49ERS v. RAMS (-3.5) 🏈 48.5 total points 🦗 [Melbourne, Australia]

QUARTERBACKS

START

Matthew Stafford (LAR) v. SF

Woah, woah, woah! You should start the reigning MVP in a matchup with an implied point total of 26? This is the premium analysis you’re getting. The Rams were the highest-scoring offense last season, and nothing suggests they're any worse off. The familiar faces of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, coupled with a sophomore-season jump of Terrance Ferguson, bode well for Stafford’s fantasy prospects. The 49ers defense was ravaged by injuries throughout last season, so some of those big names are making their return in Week 1. But the Rams’ offense is a well-oiled machine that should propel Stafford to a top-15 finish in Week 1.

FADE

Sam Darnold (SEA) v. NE

The Super Bowl champion quarterback Sam Darnold may not have the booming start that the accolade suggests. This is not anticipated to be a high-scoring affair, and Darnold is slated to start his second season in Seattle with a new play caller and a new-look backfield. Darnold can get Jaxon Smith-Njigba his obligatory 10+ targets but still end up having a mid-late QB-2 kind of week. So I don't think Darnold will be awful, but from a fantasy perspective, the passing volume and implied point total are not in his favor.

RUNNING BACKS

START

Christian McCaffrey (SF) v. LAR

No one was considering sitting/fading Christian McCaffrey. Last year’s fantasy RB-1 totaled over 2,000 total yards and 17 touchdowns on over 400 touches. But how long can the now 30-year-old bell cow back keep it up? I have him as the RB-2 this season, and it starts with a top-12 finish in Week 1 against a bolstered Rams defense. There is a lot of uncertainty amongst the 49ers’ pass-catchers, but when that happened last year, they leaned heavily on their best offensive weapon, CMC.

FADE

TreVeyon Henderson (NE) v. SEA

There is no certainty that TreVeyon Henderson will play in Week 1, but this fade assumes he is. As previously mentioned, this is not expected to be a high-scoring affair, and the Seahawks’ defense is not known to be forgiving to running backs. What’s more, the Patriots made it clear last season that they prefer a thunder and lightning split between Henderson (lightning) and Rhamondre Stevenson (thunder). I expect Stevenson to continue to be a thorn in Henderson’s fantasy side, including valuable red zone touches. So even a healthy Henderson could slide outside the top-24 in Week 1.

SLEEPER

Blake Corum (LAR) v. SF

Make no mistake, the Rams’ backfield still flows through Kyren Williams. But Corum is firmly involved in the rotation on an offense that led the league in scoring in 2025. At a certain point last season, Williams and Corum would rotate drives more than situations. So in what should be a high-scoring game where the Rams are slightly favored, it’s not crazy to think Corum could find the end zone. Unless you are in a deep league, it is unlikely that Corum would slide into your RB-2 slot; however, depending on your matchups, he could slide into your flex spot.

WIDE RECEIVERS

START

Puka Nacua (LAR) v. SF

If I am going to recommend you start last year’s RB-1, I might as well recommend you start last year’s WR-1, Puka Nacua. This is less about considering sitting/fading him and more about his impact in this offense. Nacua finished last year with nearly a 30% target share in the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (sick of me saying it yet?). I have Nacua finishing as the WR-1 once again, with the chance to increase his touchdowns alongside an aging Davante Adams. Also, a quick thank you to Puka because I can confidently spell psoas.

FADE

Romeo Doubs (NE) v. SEA

Romeo Doubs is the less exciting addition to the Patriots’ receiver room this offseason. Big moments as a member of the Packers led to this opportunity in New England, where he should start alongside A.J. Brown. The first matchup, against the unforgiving Seahawks defense, isn't the one where I would start any Patriots receiver outside of Brown. Given how unpredictable the Patriots’ target distribution can be, it will be tricky to find the right weeks to start Doubs unless the first few weeks reveal something different. So keep Doubs out of your starting lineup until proven otherwise.

SLEEPER

Rashid Shaheed (SEA) v. NE

After trading for Rashid Shaheed during the 2025 season, the Seahawks doubled down by giving him a three-year contract in March. Shaheed is firmly behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and battles with Cooper Kupp for targets as well. Where Shaheed differs, however, is his value as a downfield big-play receiver. He put that skill set on display as a member of the Saints. So while I have harped on the low-scoring nature of this game, all it takes for a player like Shaheed is one long touchdown. He is unlikely to crack your normal (redraft/dynasty) lineups, but he is more of a bestball or DFS option.

TIGHT ENDS

START

George Kittle (SF) v. LAR

George Kittle suffered a torn Achilles nearly nine months ago, which used to be a career-ender for a nearly 33-year-old tight end. Instead, Kittle is slated to fly down under to play in Week 1 against the Rams. If he is indeed active, then it’s wheels up for one of the most dynasty tight ends in the NFL. Brock Purdy and company will need to put up points in a hurry to keep up with the Rams, and Kittle should remain on the field as both a blocker and pass-catcher. With uncertainty amongst the 49ers receivers (Evans’ health, Samuel's age, Stribling’s inexperience), it will take big games from Kittle and McCaffrey to put the 49ers’ offense over the top.

FADE

Terrance Ferguson (LAR) v. SF

The fading of Terrance Ferguson in Week 1 is less an indictment of him as a player and more a caution early in the season against a top-tier group of 49ers linebackers. The Rams have historically valued their third receiver downfield, which is why there is optimism that Ferguson will fill that role in 12 and 13 personnel. I expect veterans Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee to remain involved, but Ferguson should lead this trio in targets. So this fade recommendation is exclusive to Week 1, as Ferguson’s role could very well grow throughout this season.

So you made it this far, and hopefully you enjoyed it (that’s what she said). If you wouldn’t mind sharing this in your group message with your fellow fantasy football degenerates, I would greatly appreciate it!

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Trades were sourced from the Dynasty Daddy trade database. Trades were based on the following settings:

• Quarterbacks: 2 (Superflex)

• Scoring Format: 1 (Full PPR)

• Tight End Premium: 0-0.5

• Team Count: 10-12 (Draft pick range noted below extends to 12-team leagues)

• Starter Count: 9-11

• Bestball: False

Every player has Buys (trade-for) and Sells (trade-away), regardless of whether I am “Bearish” or “Bullish”.

📈 Mike Washington | RB | LV

Washington donned a few different uniforms during his five seasons of collegiate football. Most notably, in 2025 he wore the Arkansas Razorbacks uniform, where he put up his one-and-only 1,000-yard rushing season. After that, Washington wowed at the combine, showing an intriguing blend of size (6’1” - 223lb) and speed (4.33 40-yard dash). As a part of the new regime in Las Vegas, the Raiders drafted Washington in the 4th round, and he has done nothing but impress throughout the preseason.

Where this gets interesting is the injury to the Raiders’ 2025 1st-round pick, Ashton Jeanty. The fantasy football world was in a glass case of emotion as it waited to find out the official diagnosis of Jeanty’s injury. Hearing a running back go down and an inability to “put weight on his right leg” is potentially a sign of a lengthy absence. I haven't seen a definitive statement that Jeanty will be ready for Week 1, so I'm interested in Washington as a multi-week injury stopgap. In the short-term, Washington becomes the lead back in what should be an improved offense, and in the long-term he can serve as a big-play runner in a committee backfield.

➕ To BUY:

Mike Washington ↔️ Jacory Croskey-Merritt

• Even before the Jeanty injury, I am more optimistic about Washington than JCM.

Mike Washington ↔️ Skyler Bell + ‘28 3rd

• The Bills’ receiver room is likely still too crowded for Bell to become relevant, and the future 3rd helps but doesn’t quite fill the gap.

➖ To SELL:

Mike Washington + Rome Odunze + ‘27 3rd ↔️ Malik Nabers

• There is growing optimism about Nabers’ injury timeline, and he can return to his place as a top receiver in dynasty.

Mike Washington ↔️ Emmett Johnson + ‘27 2nd

• I wasn't as high on Johnson for dynasty as most, but when paired with a 2nd-round rookie pick, I am in!

📉 Kaleb Johnson | RB | GB

Since getting familiar with Johnson in the pre-draft process, I haven't quite understood the level of hype he's received in some dynasty circles. In my Rookie Superlatives article, where I rank the top couple of rookies at each fantasy-relevant position, I considered his vision and compared him to Carlos Hyde and Chris Ivory. Those two players represent the ceiling of what Johnson could hope to achieve as a productive, physical runner. Unfortunately, outside of his physicality, there has not been much to write home about from his rookie season.

By no means is a player’s outlook determined by one season, but a kick return blunder and uneven work as a runner make for an uphill climb. What’s more, the Steelers are now under a new coaching staff, and after signing Rico Dowdle to pair with Jaylen Warren, the writing was on the wall. After rumblings that Johnson could be a cut candidate, a Josh Jacobs trip to the Commissioner’s Exempt List meant an immediate need for help at running back. A portion of the dynasty community is taking the rose colored glasses approach that this is Johnson’s chance to reestablish himself, and that is fair. But I think it offers the Packers immediate depth behind both MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks. So yes, a fresh start is good, but this could be a chance to recapture some dynasty value before Johnson slots into the RB-3 role in Green Bay.

➕ To BUY:

Kaleb Johnson ↔️ ‘28 3rd

• A 3rd is a lotto pick, and there’s a non-zero chance that Johnson can boost his value more.

Kaleb Johnson ↔️ Tre’ Harris

• I am not sure on Harris’ place in the Chargers’ receiver room, so I will take my chances on Johnson in Green Bay.

➖ To SELL:

Kaleb Johnson ↔️ ‘27 2nd

• This recoups draft capital in a 2027 draft many expect to be a vast improvement from recent years.

Kaleb Johnson ↔️ Rhamondre Stevenson

• Stevenson showed an all-around skill set last season, and the Patriots showed their preference to keep him involved regardless of the addition of TreVeyon Henderson.

💤 Najee Harris | RB | NYG

Harris is a former 1st-round pick by the Steelers just trying to get back to his high-volume ways. After four straight seasons as a 1,000-yard rusher, Harris had his first season as a free agent derailed by a fireworks incident. Once he got back, he was met with yet another roadblock, an Achilles tear in Week 3 of last season. These injuries, plus entering his age-28 season, put a cloud over Harris’ now-second opportunity at free agency.

And that next opportunity is for the New York Football Giants and its new head coach, John Harbaugh. Rumblings around the Giants’ offense have emphasized the rushing attack, which fits what Harbaugh has done historically. While the backflipping, battering-ram Cam Skattebo appears to be healthy for Week 1, Harris represents a capable substitute for the former’s physical, between-the-tackles running style. The remaining running backs, Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary, remain on the roster, and the former offers upside as an explosive, pass-catching back. I expect a healthy rotation behind Skattebo, but Harris has real value in case Skattebo deals with injury and could serve as a frustrating touchdown vulture.

➕ To BUY:

Najee Harris ↔️ ‘28 4th

• Harris does not have to do much to recoup the value of a future 4th round pick.

Najee Harris + ‘27 1st ↔️ TreVeyon Henderson

• A 1st in the 2027 draft is not easy to come by, and I already shared my thoughts on the Patriot’s backfield under Kaleb Johnson’s trades.

➖ To SELL:

Najee Harris ↔️ ‘27 2nd

• I am optimistic about what Harris can still deliver for fantasy, but a 2027 2nd is the prudent move here.

Najee Harris + Keon Coleman ↔️ D’Andre Swift

• I have never understood the Coleman hype, and Swift has proved many wrong as a steady mid-late RB-2 for fantasy.

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Ty Simpson | QB | LAR

The Rams have made serious moves for now and the future: CB Trent McDuffie was acquired and extended in March, and EDGE Myles Garrett was acquired in June. Oh, and the Rams spent a 1st-round pick on Ty Simpson after making Matthew Stafford the starter for as long as he wants to play. Simpson made the most of his preseason opportunities with mistake-free football, including three TDs and a nearly 80% completion rate. It’s not lost on me that this is the preseason, but you love to see the quarterback of the future looking comfortable in one of the NFL’s best offenses. No matter how well Simpson performed, this is still Stafford’s job until he decides otherwise, so throw Simpson on your taxi squad until that day comes.

Seth McGowan | RB | IND

A 7th-round, nearly 26-year-old running back certainly makes McGowan a stash. McGowan dealt with off-field issues, which kept him out of college football in the 2021-2023 seasons. Regardless, he finished his career at Kentucky and offers the Colts a tall, sturdy running back. Where McGowan lacks explosiveness, he more than makes up for it with decisiveness, vision, and power. While D.J. Giddens is currently slotted as the RB-2, he is dealing with a hamstring injury, which gives McGowan more opportunity. No one is expecting McGowan to take Jonathan Taylor’s job; however, a running back handcuff always has value. So stash that value for now.

Oscar Delp | TE | NOLA

Delp was a 3rd-round selection out of Georgia, boasting high-end athleticism and burst. He is more likely to get snaps as a move tight end than an inline tight end given his slight frame and dependable hands; however, he is a capable blocker. Delp has veterans Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant ahead of him, and both have their roles in this offense. But Delp serves as the heir apparent to Johnson’s role, and in the meantime he can rotate in plenty in his rookie season given his versatility. Shough could very well be the Saints’ quarterback of the future, and Delp is joining at the perfect time. While Delp deals with a preseason injury, look to stash him and reap the benefits later.

Eli Raridon | TE | NE

The Patriots have made moves to their offense to better support their young superstar, Drake Maye. The addition of A.J. Brown will no doubt upgrade the receiver room, but the drafting of Raridon in the 3rd round this year helps boost the tight end group. New England did re-sign veteran Hunter Henry; however, as he approaches his 32nd birthday, it's no secret he'll need a successor. Raridon has an injury history that is cause for concern, but his size, athleticism, and route running make him an ideal all-around tight end for Maye. Adding Raridon also gives the Patriots a chance to deploy more 12 personnel. So whether it is this season or next, look for Raridon to contribute to this budding offense.

Adam Randall | RB | BAL

I have an affinity for wide receivers-turned-running backs. What can I say? Randall has an intriguing blend of size and speed that fits in nicely behind the ageless Derrick Henry. Veterans Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali remain on the roster, but it’s not unrealistic to see a path for Randall to carve out a role as early as this season. Randall is still new to the running back position, but he can hit the hole with speed and power while offering value as a checkdown option. The Ravens’ offense is led by a new coaching staff, but I expect the rushing attack to remain a key component. And did I mention I’m a sucker for a converted running back?

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I am not wishcasting that these players lose their roles; however, the writing is on the wall for others on the roster to step up at a cheaper cost. And the churn of the NFL happens quickly, so here are five veterans’ situations to monitor throughout the 2026 season.

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*Contract information sourced from Spotrac, and fantasy points per game from PlayerProfiler, unless otherwise noted.

Tony Pollard | RB | TEN

Unrestricted Free Agent Year ➡️ 2027

Dead Cap / Cap Savings (Post June 1, 2027 release) ➡️ $0 / $0

Fantasy Points Per Game ➡️ 2025: 10.9 (#29) — 2024: 12.5 (#22) — 2023: 13.1 (#23)

Contract

Pollard enters his third season with the Titans, with a new coaching staff looking to improve the offense. Both Pollard and fellow veteran Tyjae Spears are unrestricted free agents following this season. Unfortunately, the poor offense has not helped Pollard’s fantasy production; however, he will turn 30 next season. The aging running back is not cooked, but the new coaching staff may be looking for a new recipe.

Past Performance

Coming into the league, Pollard played the change-of-pace back to Cowboys’ bell cow Ezekiel Elliott. Since 2023, Pollard has taken on a larger role, handling ~270-300 touches in each of the past three seasons. The efficiency Pollard showed in a smaller role didn't quite translate as his volume increased. Pollard was the RB-8 in 2022 (15.6 ppg), but the last three seasons have reflected a back-end RB-2 to RB-3.

Environment

As mentioned, the Titans have a new coaching staff, and they used draft capital and cap space this offseason to surround Cam Ward with some help. The notable addition to the Titans’ backfield is former Nittany Lion Nicholas Singleton, who was taken in the 5th round. The draft capital is not significant, but a Jones fracture in his right foot depressed Singleton’s value in the pre-draft process. I expect Singleton to get involved and wouldn't be surprised if, this time next season, the Tennessee backfield looks much different. Pollard may land in the back-end RB-2 territory for fantasy football, but unless he takes a steep discount, I expect the Titans to look to retool their running back room.

J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN

Unrestricted Free Agent Year ➡️ 2028

Dead Cap / Cap Savings (Post June 1, 2027 release) ➡️ $2M / $8M

Fantasy Points Per Game ➡️ 2025: 11.6 (#26) — 2024: 14.8 (#18) — 2023: 11.7 (N/A)

Contract

After a one-year deal with the Broncos, Dobbins signed a two-year extension to remain with the team back in March. The deal is effectively a one-year extension considering how palatable the dead cap figure is after this season. This contract reflects Dobbins’ production since joining Denver while acknowledging his injury history.

Past Performance

Dobbins has been anything but consistent, putting up double-digit fantasy points per game since entering the NFL in 2020. Dobbins's biggest hurdle has been availability, as he has never played a full season. From 2022-2025, Dobbins has played in 47% of possible games. Much of Dobbins’ value is as a rusher and red zone back, as he earned approximately 15 carries per game on a 50% snap share, with at least one red zone carry in all but one game. When healthy, Dobbins is still an above-average runner who can be flex-worthy in a committee backfield.

Environment

The Broncos did extend Dobbins in the offseason, but they also spent 4th-round draft capital on a compact back out of Washington, Jonah Coleman. Here is a look back at my thoughts on this year’s rookie running backs, where I slotted Coleman as the RB-2. Adding Coleman speaks to Denver’s vulnerability at RB, as R.J. Harvey will serve as the pass-catching, explosive component of this backfield committee. Denver’s offense has improved under the leadership of Sean Payton, and by extension Davis Webb, as well as with Bo Nix at quarterback. And as Coleman’s role grows, it could mean Dobbins is wearing a different uniform as early as this time next year.

Jerry Jeudy | WR | CLE

Unrestricted Free Agent Year ➡️ 2028

Dead Cap / Cap Savings (Post June 1, 2027 release) ➡️ $8.9M - $16.6M / $4.6M

Fantasy Points Per Game ➡️ 2025: 7.1 (#61) — 2024: 14.2 (#21) — 2023: 8.9 (#55)

Contract

Jeudy signed a fairly lucrative three-year contract extension ahead of the 2024 season on the heels of his rookie deal expiring as a 2020 1st-round pick. During this time, the Browns have remained in QB purgatory without a clear direction as an offense. While Jeudy isn't an unrestricted free agent until 2028, the Browns may continue trimming their salary after the 2026 season. The cap savings are modest if Jeudy were released, so he may stick around another year, but I don't think he'll be on the Browns by the end of his contract.

Past Performance

Lauded for his route-running prowess as a member of the Crimson Tide, Jeudy didn’t post his first 1,000-yard season not until his 5th season. Availability is not the culprit for the so-so fantasy production, as Jeudy has not missed too many games in his six-year career. Jeudy’s two best seasons came in 2022 and 2024, where he finished as the WR-19 and WR-21, respectively. This appears to be Jeudy’s fantasy ceiling, but it remains to be seen if he can put together that level of production for two consecutive seasons.

Environment

The Browns made significant changes this offseason, including a coaching change and several size-able roster moves. Among those roster moves was the drafting of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Here are some of my thoughts on these two rookies in the pre-draft process. Using such early draft capital on the same position speaks to the emphasis placed on improving the wide receiver room. Concepcion and Boston couldn’t be a better complement to one another, with the former a compact, explosive receiver and the latter a long, versatile receiver. I think adding these two rookies alongside Jeudy and Harold Fannin is huge for this Browns’ offense; however, I am most concerned Jeudy won't reach that WR-2 ceiling until he is in a different uniform.

Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI

Unrestricted Free Agent Year ➡️ 2027

Dead Cap / Cap Savings (Post June 1, 2027 release) ➡️ $8.2M - $10.0M / $0 (Void years)

Fantasy Points Per Game ➡️ 2025: 12.3 (#5) — 2024: 10.4 (#10) — 2023: 9.7 (#12)

Contract

Goedert received a one-year contract extension, which served as a thank you for his prior year's production and as a tool to reduce his cap hit due to void years in his contract. While those void years still exist, Goedert is slated to become an unrestricted free agent following this season. Goedert turns 32 in a couple of months, and I expect the rest of his career to consist of a series of short contracts like this offseason.

Past Performance

Despite his age and the overall Eagles’ offense in 2025, Goedert had his best fantasy season with 12.3 fantasy points per game and a whopping 11 touchdowns. Considering Goedert had never scored more than 5 touchdowns in any of his prior 7 seasons, it is safe to assume that this is not a sticky stat. However, since 2019, Goedert has never finished outside the top-12 in fantasy amongst the tight end position. This kind of consistency is notable considering the variability of tight end production outside of the top 2-3 players. But as he enters the twilight of his career, it is worth questioning whether the top-12 trend will continue.

Environment

The Eagles’ offense has been in flux since the end of the 2025 season, with the trade of A.J. Brown, the drafting of Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers, the addition of Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown, and the hiring of new play-caller Sean Mannion. Goedert remains a trusted pass-catcher for Jalen Hurts, but there could be a change in the Eagles’ offense. With a reduction in touchdowns, Goedert could have trouble increasing his target volume to compensate. Regardless of whether what your thoughts are on the Eagles’ offense as a whole for 2026, it’s a very real possibility that this is the beginning of phasing in Stowers and trimming Goedert’s target share. In this scenario, Goedert remains an important part of the offense, but his fantasy viability is diminished. And following 2026, there is no guarantee that Goedert remains in Philadelphia (see Zach Ertz’s exit).

Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR

Unrestricted Free Agent Year ➡️ 2029

Dead Cap / Cap Savings (Post June 1, 2027 release) ➡️ $1.5M - $1.5M / $7.5M

Fantasy Points Per Game ➡️ 2025: 8.4 (#40) — 2024: 16.1 (#13) — 2023: 10.7 (#33)

Contract

Halfway through the 2024 season, a career year, Hubbard signed an extension keeping him in Carolina until he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2029. Hubbard has served as a leader on the Panthers as they have churned through coaching and front office changes. The current, and seemingly long-term, head coach Dave Canales has spoken highly of Hubbard and despite a calf injury hindering his 2025 season. It’s important to note that the structure of Hubbard’s contract leaves a huge cap savings with reasonable dead cap if he were not on the roster this time next year.

Past Performance

Hubbard joined the Panthers as a 4th-round pick in 2021 and was not expected to threaten one of the franchise’s best running backs, Christian McCaffrey. Possibly the most notable accomplish for Hubbard is surviving the Matt Rhule era in Charlotte and sticking it out as the team righted the ship. Following the trade of McCaffrey to the 49ers in December of the 2022 season, Hubbard opened the 2023 season as the Panthers’ starting running back. And as previously mentioned, it was in 2024 when Hubbard had his breakout season finishing as the RB-13 in fantasy with 16.1 points per game. But there was one fact looming over the Panthers’ backfield, the drafting of Jonathon Brooks.

Environment

The Panthers injected life into the offensive line in 2024 by investing in Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. This investment and the drafting of Jonathon Brooks in the same year pointed to the Panthers’ intention to emphasize the running game. Multiple knee injuries have thrown a wrench into Brooks’ availability, but optimism sustained regarding what he could do once healthy. Brooks has been a healthy participant throughout the offseason, while unfortunately Hubbard picked up a hamstring injury that hopefully does not impact his Week 1 availability. When both running backs are healthy, I expect a committee backfield, but if Brooks proves to be able to handle enough volume it could mean less for Hubbard. Hubbard’s leadership is invaluable to this Panthers team, but his fantasy production could take a step back as a healthy Brooks usurps his RB-1 role.

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Trades were sourced from the Dynasty Daddy trade database. Trades were based on the following settings:

• Quarterbacks: 2 (Superflex)

• Scoring Format: 1 (Full PPR)

• Tight End Premium: 0-0.5

• Team Count: 10-12 (Draft pick range noted below extends to 12-team leagues)

• Starter Count: 9-11

• Bestball: False

Every player has Buys (trade-for) and Sells (trade-away), regardless of whether I am “Bearish” or “Bullish”.

Darren Waller | TE | CAR

📈 Bullish: Darren Waller joins a Panthers’ offense that wouldn’t mind another big-bodied pass-catcher, offering huge touchdown upside as a red zone threat.

After briefly stepping away from football to focus on his music career, Darren Waller rejoined the NFL ranks last year as a member of the Dolphins. To say he was a monster in the red zone in 2025 is an understatement. On a measly 34 targets, seven of them came in the red zone, and six were caught for touchdowns. Now a nearly 34-year-old joins a Panthers team that wouldn’t mind having another pass-catcher.

Waller was limited to nine games in 2025, but by all accounts, he joins the Panthers healthy and ready to go. The Panthers’ offense may not be the highest-volume passing team in the NFL, but after Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, there is an opening. Also, with Tommy Tremble serving as a road-grading blocker, Waller offers a pass-catching complement when the Panthers deploy 12 personnel. Outside of the top tight end options, who have sizeable target volume, I look to stream tight ends with touchdown upside, and Waller is just that. And he shouldn’t cost much as an aging player joining a balanced offense.

➕ To BUY:

Darren Waller ←→ ‘27 3rd

• 3rds are already a dice roll, so why not get a veteran tight end with touchdown upside?

Darren Waller + Deebo Samuel + Tyjae Spears ←→ Stefon Diggs

• Diggs immediately steps into the WR-2 role in Washington, but the upside of Waller and Samuel is a better hedge than all my eggs in one Diggs-shaped basket.

➖ To SELL:

Darren Waller +’27 2nd + ‘29 3rd ←→ Parker Washington

• I will acquire Washington anywhere I possibly can, and this is just too much to pass up.

Darren Waller + Aaron Jones ←→ ‘29 2nd

• These veterans are slated to contribute in 2027, but nothing is certain beyond that.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS

📉 Bearish: Bill was shot out of a cannon in his rookie season, but a re-tooled Commanders running back room could limit his role.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, or “Bill”, had a meteoric rise in his rookie season after falling to the 7th round in the 2025 NFL Draft. Brian Robinson had left town, and the Commanders were looking for production following an Austin Ekeler injury. Bill gave the Commanders just that, with 4.6 yards per carry and eight total touchdowns.

No matter the surprise production from Bill in 2025, the Commanders invested in the running back room in the offseason with Rachaad White and Jerome Ford as free agents, as well as Kaytron Allen in the NFL Draft (along with some other additions). White provides the Commanders a solid overall back, with most of his value coming on passing downs. Allen is an intriguing between-the-tackles option after a successful career at Penn State. Ford is a depth player who, like White, is a bit of an all-around back. This group lacks a bell-cow back, so weekly touches may be murky. The one thing I feel confident about is that White will be a primary focus, and I simply do not trust Croskey-Merritt to maintain a large enough role to remain fantasy-relevant. But the story has been exciting!

➕ To BUY:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt + Courtland Sutton ←→ Rhamondre Stevenson

• Stevenson is slated to split touches with TreVeyon Henderson, but Sutton has huge touchdown upside even with the addition of Jaylen Waddle.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt + ‘27 2nd ←→ Jaylen Warren + ‘27 3rd

• I like Warren over Bill, but jumping from the 3rd to the 2nd makes this worthwhile.

➖ To SELL:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt ←→ Nicholas Singleton + ‘28 2nd

• Singleton has a chance to earn the ground work in Tennessee as Tony Pollard’s contract nears its end. Oh, and there is a 2nd round pick to boot!

Jacory Croskey-Merritt + ‘27 3rd ←→ Daniel Jones

• Reports have it that Jones should be back sooner rather than later from his 2025 Achilles injury, so getting a top-24 starting quarterback at this cost is a no-brainer.

Dolphins | WR | MIA

💤 Sleeper: The new-look Dolphins offense may have more upside than expected, with an interesting mix of veteran and rookie receivers helping a resurgent Malik Willis.

Instead of picking one name, this week’s sleeper play is the Dolphins’ wide receiver room. The offense was looking questionable after a new coaching staff and front office cleared out the roster.

Miami made a bold move, trading away Jaylen Waddle and releasing the aging, injured Tyreek Hill. The remaining primary receiver was Malik Washington, and then the Dolphins got to work, adding free agents Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell. Then Miami drafted Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell in the NFL Draft, with the former getting rave offseason reviews while the latter was just activated to start practicing following a collegiate ACL tear. Malik Willis has his first real starting opportunity since his time in Tennessee, and it looks like they will need to put up points to stay in games. With so much uncertainty surrounding the Dolphins’ pass-catchers, don’t be afraid to trade for one or two to see what cream rises to the top.

➕ To BUY:

Malik Washington + ‘27 3rd + ‘28 2nd ←→ Michael Penix

• I have serious concerns about Penix's longevity and production while healthy, so I'm not waiting around, but getting a Dolphin receiver and a pair of picks works for me.

Caleb Douglas ←→ Adonai Mitchell + ‘27 4th

• Douglas may or may not be the WR-1 in Miami, but he should have more opportunity and production than Mitchell, the latter of whom I was not too high on out of Texas.

Chris Bell + Brenton Strange ←→ D’Andre Swift

• Swift was a pleasant surprise in 2025, and with Kyle Monangai's recent knee injury, he should remain relevant in 2026. But I've long believed in Strange, which his new contract supports, and Bell has huge upside.

➖ To SELL:

Malik Washington + ‘27 4th ←→ ‘27 2nd

• I like Washington, but a 2nd is too much to turn down for one of many options as Miami’s WR-1.

Caleb Douglas ←→ ‘28 2nd

• The offseason hype for Douglas has been strong, but I have a hard time turning down a 2nd for a Dolphins’ receiver not named Chris Bell.

Chris Bell ←→ Christian Watson

• I am normally not a proponent of 1-for-1 trades with players at the same position, but the stars appear to be aligning for Watson as the WR-1 in Green Bay after surging back last year from an ACL injury.

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ADDITIONAL NOTES

Every post through Week 1 remains free. I didn't want to abruptly switch everything to paid without a heads-up.

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So you made it this far, and hopefully you enjoyed it (that’s what she said). If you wouldn’t mind sharing this in your group message with your fellow fantasy football degenerates, I would greatly appreciate it!

Share

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A QUICK OVERVIEW

Here is a look at what makes this year’s SFB different from most other fantasy leagues:

• Start 10 - 2 superflex spots and 8 flex spots

• 6 points for every touchdown, quarterbacks included

• No negative points for picks or fumbles

• +10 bonus points for 300/400 yard passing games, 100/200 yard rushing/receiving games, and any 40+ yard rush or pass play or 20+ yard catch

• .5 points per first down and reception

• And a nice TE premium — +1 per catch and per first down for tight ends

Individually, most of this is new to anyone who’s played SFB before. But together, this makes for a draft strategy that places extra emphasis on big arms and explosive pass-catchers. Geoff Lambert has a great SFB tool over at GoingFor2 to compare regular PPR and SFB scoring from the prior season.

MY DRAFT & MY THOUGHTS

My favorite picks:

• ROUND 1️⃣: Ja’Marr Chase

  • Volume and big-play ability, simple as that.

• ROUND 3️⃣: George Pickens -&- ROUND 4️⃣: Dak Prescott

  • I wanted the Dak stack, and I got it.

• ROUND 7️⃣: Christian Watson -&- ROUND 8️⃣: Jordan Love

  • Another stack that I feel is underappreciated relative to ADP.

Where I think I reached:

• ROUND 5️⃣: Ladd McConkey

  • Should bounce back, but in this format I should’ve looked elsewhere.

• ROUND 1️⃣1️⃣: Juwan Johnson

  • The allure of the tight end got me, and with another pass-catcher in New Orleans, there may not be as much work for Johnson.

  ROUND 1️⃣5️⃣: Geno Smith

  • I didn’t really need a third QB even though it is superflex, and despite my optimism, there is a chance that last year’s Geno shows up.

Where I Land

Five SFB’s in, and each one has been better than the last. There is a shared interest in fantasy football, and it is a great way to raise money for charity and meet fellow fantasy enthusiasts. So whether you are just now hearing about SFB or have not yet decided to test the waters, go ahead and sign up for next year’s league here!

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