Trade Tuesday #02: Brown, Smith, Watson

Chew is bullish on Brown, bearish on Smith, and not sleeping on Watson.

The NFL offseason doesn’t sleep, and June has given us plenty of actionable news already. This week, two transactions are reshaping the dynasty WR landscape: A.J. Brown traded to the Patriots (with ripple effects for DeVonta Smith), and Christian Watson signed a big extension in Green Bay. The former was expected for months, while the latter was a bit more out of left field. Here is how I’m trading each of them. Follow these trades, and you’ll be like Johnny Drama screaming “VICTORY”!

Trades were sourced from the Dynasty Daddy trade database. Trades were based on the following settings:

• Quarterbacks: 2 (Superflex)

• Scoring Format: 1 (Full PPR)

• Tight End Premium: 0-0.5

• Team Count: 10-12 (Draft pick range noted below extends to 12-team leagues)

• Starter Count: 9-11

• Bestball: False

Every player has buy and sell examples, even if I am “Bearish” or “Bullish”.

A.J. Brown | WR | NE

📈 Bullish: Brown is the unquestioned WR-1 paired with an ascending passer on a team that will need to put up points with a tougher schedule.

The A.J. Brown trade was a bit anticlimactic. The Patriots were always the front-runner, and because of the contract, it was understood that the trade would happen sometime after June 1st. This is a huge upgrade for Drake Maye, who goes from an aging alpha in Stefon Diggs to an, at worst, still-in-his-prime A.J. Brown. Brown has cleared 2.00 YPRR in every season since joining the Eagles in 2022, including two seasons above 3.00 YPRR. The Patriots haven’t led the league in pass attempts with Drake Maye, but in 2025, he had the most yards per attempt and third-most passing touchdowns (among QB’s with > 250 plays). Brown could comfortably maintain his 27-30% target share with upside for more, easily eclipsing Diggs’ 2025 numbers.

➕ To BUY:

A.J. Brown ←→ Jonah Coleman + ‘27 2nd

• Getting Brown for essentially the ‘26 2.01 and a ‘27 2nd is a no-brainer.

A.J. Brown ←→ Michael Pittman + Davante Adams + Rico Dowdle

• Savvy move to get the last bit of value out of Adams and the depth value of Pittman and Dowdle.

➖ To SELL:

A.J. Brown ←→ Ladd McConkey + ‘27 2nd

• The ‘27 2nd is icing on the fantasy cake.

A.J. Brown ←→ Jaylen Waddle + Jordyn Tyson

• This is someone who is REALLY high on A.J. Brown.

DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI

📉 Bearish: Smith is slated to be the WR-1 in Philadelphia, but a change in the types of receivers in the room and a new play-caller could cap his ceiling.

My pessimism for DeVonta Smith is not that I think he will do worse than his historical fantasy production, but that I do not think a leap forward is incoming. The 2020 Heisman-winner finally gets his chance to be the WR-1 on the Eagles after getting a contract extension that keeps him in Philadelphia through the 2028 season. The Eagles ranked in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts in 2025. Their offseason additions (Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers, Dontayvion Wicks, and Hollywood Brown) point towards a change in the offense and not a significant target increase for Smith. To boost his fantasy production, Smith would need a healthy increase in targets and/or a better chance to create more yards. The latter is his most realistic path to increasing fantasy production, but his YPRR has historically been around or below 2.00, which does not give me confidence. Add in first-time playcaller Sean Mannion, and the uncertainty compounds. He will still produce, just not like his rise in value would suggest.

➕ To BUY:

DeVonta Smith ←→ ‘26 1.08 + ‘26 2.04

• Depressed value for ‘26 picks beyond the middle of the first round makes this a great move.

DeVonta Smith ←→ ‘26 1.10 + Jonathan Brooks

• This one is closer as I’m high on a Brooks bounceback, but the certainty of Smith is the move here.

➖ To SELL:

DeVonta Smith + ‘26 1.07 ←→ Drake London

• This is a reasonable cost for a top-end dynasty receiver in London.

DeVonta Smith + ‘26 1.10 ←→ De’Von Achane

• The last of the playmakers left in Miami, Achane, is truly a difference-maker.

Christian Watson | WR | GB

💤 Sleeper: After the offseason churn of the receiver room, Watson gets the big contract extension as the Packers’ WR-1.

In the words of the great Bill Parcells, “the best ability is availability.” This has been the main drawback for Christian Watson’s fantasy upside, missing nearly 30% of his career games. But after a torn ACL in January 2025, Watson came back better than ever that same year, finishing the season with a career-high 13.2 fantasy points per game. This is Watson’s floor, as it includes his ramp up from his injury. The Packers used this offseason to set their priorities: not re-signing Romeo Doubs, trading away Dontayvion Wicks, and re-signing both Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. The biggest threat to Watson’s targets is Tucker Kraft, who is working his way back from a torn ACL from November of last season. There is room in this offense for Kraft to have his share and Watson to remain the clear-cut first option. Players are often labeled as “injury-prone”, but I do not subscribe to that notion. The Packers invested in Watson as their WR-1, and his skill set is that of a downfield threat who has top-end speed and athleticism to turn any target into a touchdown. Go trade for Watson and, in the words of Champ Kind, “WHAMMY!”

➕ To BUY:

Christian Watson + Bhayshul Tuten ←→ TreVeyon Henderson

• I am not a Henderson truther, so getting Watson and a startable back in Tuten is a good move.

Christian Watson ←→ ‘26 2.04 + ‘26 4.04

• Once again, the down ‘26 rookie class makes this a worthwhile move.

➖ To SELL:

Christian Watson ←→ Jakobi Meyers + ‘27 2nd

• Meyers is a bit older, but he was re-upped in Jacksonville, and the ‘27 2nd cements that side.

Christian Watson + ‘27 1st ←→ Malik Nabers

• The injury situation is murky for Nabers, but this is the time to buy low on a player of his caliber.

So you made it this far, and hopefully you enjoyed it (that’s what she said). If you wouldn’t mind sharing this in your group message with your fellow fantasy football degenerates, I would greatly appreciate it!

If you prefer to listen to words rather than read them, check out the Faux Football Podcast!